Tom Louchet
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom Louchet's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-9.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-11.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.19x the positional average in the league (1365 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 88
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 43.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €4.2M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1365 (45% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 44 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1358
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €11.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; team strength down (-164 Elo); relative output up 141% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -58% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1365 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RM | 27 | 1365 | 45% | 3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 1477 | 1358 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RM | 22 | 766 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1432 | 1521 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RM | 13 | 399 | 13% | 1 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.31 | 1490 | 1511 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 7 | 524 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | OGC Nice | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | OGC Nice | 7 | 582 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yves Bissouma Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €8.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Godfred Donsah Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Jens Cajuste Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €6.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Nico Melamed Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Samuel Moutoussamy Ligue 1 · 2019 | 23 | €5.0M | €750k | fell |
| Saphir Taïder Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Denis Huseinbasic Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Jacopo Fazzini Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | OGC Nice B | Nice | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Nizza U19 | OGC Nice B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Istres FC U17 | Nizza U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Gap Foot 05 Jgd | Istres FC U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.