Abbosbek Fayzullaev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abbosbek Fayzullaev's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.5M-9.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-11.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.23x the positional average in the league (1109 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €5.9M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1109 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1252
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €11.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; changed club; team strength down (-121 Elo); league level down (-71 Elo); role change AM -> RW; relative output up 84% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -25% to +87%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1109 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | RW | 20 | 1109 | 36% | 3 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.48 | 1252 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 27 | 1817 | 67% | 2 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1295 | 1478 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | PFK CSKA Moskva | Premier Liga | AM | 22 | 1627 | 60% | 4 | 11 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1319 | 1403 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Uzbekistan | 3 | 223 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1381 |
| 2025/26 | Russian Super Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 12 | 589 | 1 | 4 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | PFK CSKA Moskva | 10 | 618 | 1 | 3 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Amuzu Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Konstantin Tyukavin Premier Liga · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Luis Sinisterra Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €9.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Karol Świderski Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Taylor Booth Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Andreas Schjelderup Superliga · 2023 | 19 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Levi García Super League 1 · 2021 | 24 | €4.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Enis Destan Super Lig · 2024 | 22 | €4.8M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | CSKA Moscow | Basaksehir | €7.5M | €8.0M |
| 4 Aug 2023 | Pakhtakor | CSKA Moscow | €500k | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Pakhtakor U21 | Pakhtakor | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.