Konstantin Tyukavin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Konstantin Tyukavin's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-15.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.9M-23.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.3M-24.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.30x the positional average in the league (1452 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.0M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1452 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.87
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.66
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1337
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.3M – €24.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR +7% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1452 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 22 | 1452 | 54% | 10 | 4 | 0.87 | 0.66 | 1337 | 1423 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 19 | 1503 | 56% | 7 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 1289 | 1445 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 2346 | 87% | 15 | 10 | 0.96 | 0.80 | 1327 | 1374 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 28 | 1331 | 49% | 9 | 7 | 1.08 | 0.65 | 1293 | 1325 | 0.53 |
| 2021/22 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 30 | 1504 | 56% | 6 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.48 | 1351 | 1374 | 0.52 |
| 2020/21 | FK Dinamo Moskva | Premier Liga | ST | 15 | 711 | 26% | 3 | 5 | 1.01 | 0.65 | 1329 | 1391 | 0.55 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 608 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 3 | 196 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 7 | 337 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 9 | 423 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 6 | 406 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Russian Cup | FK Dinamo Moskva | 2 | 85 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Edwards Liga Portugal · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Nacer Chadli Eredivisie · 2013 | 24 | €9.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Bitello Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Lyle Foster Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Sardar Azmoun Premier Liga · 2018 | 23 | €9.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Carlos Vinícius Liga Portugal · 2019 | 24 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Diego Rossi Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €14.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Premier Liga · 2021 | 20 | €18.0M | €85.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2021 | Dynamo 2 | Dynamo Moscow | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Dynamo M II | Dynamo 2 | Unknown | €175k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Dynamo U17 | Dynamo M II | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.