Williot Swedberg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Williot Swedberg's performance-implied value at EUR 6.1M-16.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.4M-28.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.0M-33.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (1268 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €22.2M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1268 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.71
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.58
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1498
- Opponent strength
- 1485
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.0M – €33.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -44% to +39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1268 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LW | 29 | 1268 | 37% | 5 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.58 | 1485 | 1498 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LW | 32 | 1347 | 39% | 4 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.65 | 1533 | 1476 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | AM | 15 | 434 | 13% | 5 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.77 | 1481 | 1449 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | AM | 4 | 52 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1585 | 1441 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 10 | 584 | 5 | 2 | 1513 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 134 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 5 | 427 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 78 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Muriel Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Nico González Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €22.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Scamacca Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Patrik Schick Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2020 | 22 | €15.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Memphis Depay Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €19.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Ermedin Demirovic Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Isaac Romero Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hammarby | Celta de Vigo | €5.5M | €5.0M |
| 11 Aug 2021 | Hammarby IF U17 | Hammarby | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Hammarby TFF | Hammarby IF U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 8 Jan 2021 | Hammarby IF U17 | Hammarby TFF | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2020 | IK Frej Täby | Hammarby IF U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Hammarby IF U17 | IK Frej Täby | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.