Mert Kömür
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mert Kömür's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-13.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.0M-19.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.4M-25.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1463 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 54.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 21 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €12.3M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 42% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1463 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.43
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1468
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 42%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.4M – €25.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 27 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR +8% to +110%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1463 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 28 | 1463 | 48% | 2 | 4 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 1468 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 20 | 646 | 21% | 2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 1509 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | AM | 4 | 116 | 4% | 1 | 0 | 0.78 | 0.69 | 1718 | 1393 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 121 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yves Bissouma Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €8.0M | €9.5M | flat |
| Mateo Kovacic Serie A · 2014 | 20 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Nico González Laliga · 2023 | 21 | €10.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €15.5M | €60.0M | rose |
| Godfred Donsah Serie A · 2018 | 22 | €10.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Mario Pašalić Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Wilfried Singo Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Serie A · 2023 | 20 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Augsburg U19 | Augsburg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Augsburg U17 | FC Augsburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Augsburg Yth. | FC Augsburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | TSV 1860 Yth. | Augsburg Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.