Lukas Ullrich
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lukas Ullrich's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-9.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.7M-8.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.8M-9.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.46x the positional average in the league (1306 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.2M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 16% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1306 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 49 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1507
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 16%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.8M – €9.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; role change LB -> LM; relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -24% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1306 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 1306 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1507 | 1422 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 26 | 1918 | 63% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1512 | 1427 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LB | 4 | 44 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1695 | 1435 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémy Gélin Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Ismaël Doukouré Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Lamine Fomba Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €3.6M | €3.0M | flat |
| Amine Harit Bundesliga · 2019 | 22 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Uros Racic Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ilia Gruev Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €5.0M | rose |
| Afriyie Acquah Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Albin Ekdal Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €3.7M | €4.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Hertha BSC II | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hertha BSC U19 | Hertha BSC II | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Hertha BSC U17 | Hertha BSC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Hertha BSC Yth. | Hertha BSC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.