Ismaël Doukouré
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ismaël Doukouré's performance-implied value at EUR 6.9M-29.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.9M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.9M-27.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.7M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2077 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.9M – €27.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +6% (IQR -11% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2077 | 68% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1464 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2647 | 87% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1449 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | DM | 22 | 1660 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1473 | 1393 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2301 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1439 | 1441 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1383 | 1503 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | 1342 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2017 | 22 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Arthur Theate Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Vitaliy Mykolenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €18.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Zeki Çelik Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Malang Sarr Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €16.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €11.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Sven Botman Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Leonardo Balerdi Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2022 | Valenciennes FC | R. Strasbourg | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | VAFC U19 | Valenciennes FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | VAFC U17 | VAFC U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | VAFC Yth. | VAFC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | LOSC Lille Yth. | VAFC Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.