Uros Racic

28 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Serbia
Aris Thessalonikis · Super League 1 · Foot: both · Height: 193 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€775k – €3.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€925k – €1.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €3.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.3M – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€775k – €3.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€925k – €1.9M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Uros Racic's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.22x the positional average in the league (1963 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 78

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage41th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable28.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.6M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €10.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1963 (84% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.14
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
41 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1255
Opponent strength
1245
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €3.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 60 pts; changed club; team strength down (-223 Elo); league level down (-43 Elo); relative output down 35% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -35% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
14 (MID)
Relative output kept
67%–189%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
64%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1DM23196384%210.140.15124512550.43
2024/25SC BragaLiga PortugalDM1472224%310.500.24136214780.51
2023/24US SassuoloSerie ADM2281324%110.220.18145013300.98
2022/23SC BragaLiga PortugalCM25112037%100.080.11140415570.68
2021/22Valencia CFLaligaCM28112533%000.000.11151714871.05
2020/21Valencia CFLaligaCM31219164%110.080.15157615011.10
2019/20FC FamalicãoLiga PortugalCM33242179%310.150.23136713280.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis525510—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis2157001361
2024/25Fa CupWest Bromwich Albion15400—
2023/24Italy CupUS Sassuolo19000—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueSC Braga5218001524
2021/22Copa Del ReyValencia CF630901—
2020/21Copa Del ReyValencia CF427110—
2018/19Copa Del ReyValencia CF16900—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Haris Hajradinovic
Super Lig · 2020
26€2.4M€3.3Mrose
Siebe Schrijvers
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
26€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Miguel Cardoso
Super Lig · 2023
29€2.7M€2.0Mfell
Artem Makarchuk
Premier Liga · 2023
28€2.5M€1.2Mfell
Fernando Costanza
Premier Liga · 2024
26€3.5M€2.5Mfell
Fousseni Diabaté
Super Lig · 2022
27€2.7M€1.0Mfell
Guilherme
Super Lig · 2019
28€3.0M€2.2Mfell
Nicolás Martínez
Super League 1 · 2015
28€900k€900kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
14 Jul 2025SassuoloAris Saloniki€2.5M€3.5M
30 Jun 2025BragaSassuoloFree / loan€3.5M
1 Feb 2025SassuoloBragaFree / loan€2.5M
31 Jan 2025West BromSassuoloFree / loan€2.5M
22 Aug 2024SassuoloWest BromFree / loan€2.5M
16 Aug 2023ValenciaSassuolo€2.5M€6.5M
30 Jun 2023BragaValenciaFree / loan€6.5M
1 Sept 2022ValenciaBragaFree / loan€7.0M
31 Jul 2020FamalicãoValenciaFree / loan€2.3M
8 Aug 2019ValenciaFamalicãoFree / loan€5.0M
30 Jun 2019CD TenerifeValenciaFree / loan€5.0M
14 Jan 2019ValenciaCD TenerifeFree / loan€2.0M
1 Jul 2018Red StarValencia€2.2M€1.0M
1 Jul 2016Red Star U19Red StarUnknownData unavailable
13 Mar 2016OFK Beograd U19Red Star U19€90kData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Uros Racic · MoneyballAI