Kayne van Oevelen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kayne van Oevelen's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-5.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 9.3th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.8M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2851 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1101
- Opponent strength
- 1331
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €5.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -26% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 217 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 70%–152%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | GK | 32 | 2851 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1331 | 1101 | 0.43 |
| 2023/24 | FC Volendam | Eredivisie | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1302 | 1066 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Volendam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| İrfan Can Eğribayat Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jasper Schendelaar Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
| Mio Backhaus Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €1.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Guillaume Dietsch Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Bilal Bayazıt Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €2.8M | €1.8M | fell |
| Nathan Trott Superliga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Evgeniy Latyshonok Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Oliver Christensen Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Volendam U21 | FC Volendam | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | AFC U18 | Volendam U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AFC U17 | AFC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AFC Youth | AFC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hollandia Yth. | AFC Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Purmersteijn Y. | Hollandia Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Purmerend Yth. | Purmersteijn Y. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.