Aleksandar Pavlovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Aleksandar Pavlovic's performance-implied value at EUR 25.2M-61.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 69.7M-123.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 60.1M-111.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1461 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €97.0M vs market €90.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1461 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1481
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €60.1M – €112M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo); relative output up 67% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to +58%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1461 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 24 | 1461 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.09 | 1481 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 21 | 1458 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1511 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | DM | 19 | 1229 | 40% | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 1500 | 1715 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 14 | 1176 | 1 | 1 | 1714 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 5 | 359 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Germany | 3 | 195 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 5 | 291 | 0 | 1 | 1550 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 94 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 3 | 206 | 0 | 0 | 1692 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aurélien Tchouaméni Laliga · 2024 | 24 | €100M | €70.0M | fell |
| Joshua Kimmich Bundesliga · 2017 | 22 | €25.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Mario Götze Bundesliga · 2014 | 22 | €55.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Federico Valverde Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €65.0M | €100M | rose |
| Thiago Alcántara Bundesliga · 2014 | 23 | €30.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Isco Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €75.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Alex Sandro Serie A · 2016 | 25 | €26.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Leon Goretzka Bundesliga · 2021 | 26 | €70.0M | €45.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2023 | FC Bayern II | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Bayern U19 | FC Bayern II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Fürstenf. Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SC Olching Yth. | Fürstenf. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.