Yan Kostenko
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yan Kostenko's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (1888 minutes, league coefficient 0.25). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €609k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1888 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1176
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €468k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -28% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | LM | 25 | 1888 | 70% | 5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 1176 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | LM | 26 | 1485 | 55% | 1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 1216 | 1185 | 0.28 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 1 | 72 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Karpaty Lviv | 2 | 37 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyall Cameron Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €600k | €1.2M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Denys Kuzyk Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €2.0M | rose |
| Josh Campbell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €750k | €1.2M | rose |
| Calem Nieuwenhof Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Iago Siqueira Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €400k | €500k | rose |
| Artem Kozak Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Kévin Soni Super League 1 · 2022 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2023 | SC Poltava | Karpaty Lviv | Free / loan | €100k |
| 26 Aug 2021 | Vorskla U19 | SC Poltava | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Vorskla U17 | Vorskla U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.