Jobe Bellingham
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jobe Bellingham's performance-implied value at EUR 6.0M-43.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 32.3M-55.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 28.1M-68.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.53x the positional average in the league (1785 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €43.7M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1785 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1461
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €28.1M – €68.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -32% to +34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1785 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | DM | 32 | 1785 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1461 | 1656 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 10 | 644 | 0 | 2 | 1587 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 236 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yunus Musah Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €22.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Mattéo Guendouzi Premier League · 2020 | 21 | €40.5M | €25.0M | fell |
| Boubakary Soumaré Ligue 1 · 2021 | 22 | €28.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Zaniolo Serie A · 2019 | 20 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2019 | 23 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Paul Pogba Serie A · 2013 | 20 | €18.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Jude Bellingham Bundesliga · 2021 | 18 | €55.0M | €120M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | Sunderland | Dortmund | €30.5M | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Birmingham | Sunderland | €1.8M | €5.0M |
| 23 Sept 2022 | Birmingham U18 | Birmingham | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Birmingham Aca. | Birmingham U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.