Luiz Henrique
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luiz Henrique's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-16.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.3M-29.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.8M-29.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.60x the positional average in the league (2038 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.9M vs market €24.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2038 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 67 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1317
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.8M – €29.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 40 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +53% (IQR +0% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–104%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 50%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RW | 28 | 2038 | 75% | 6 | 4 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 1317 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RW | 11 | 961 | 36% | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 1294 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 14 | 611 | 18% | 0 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 1481 | 1520 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Real Betis Balompié | Laliga | RW | 33 | 1811 | 53% | 1 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1527 | 1530 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 6 | 408 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Brazil | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 3 | 165 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 5 | 241 | 0 | 0 | 1474 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 130 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Real Betis Balompié | 7 | 437 | 2 | 2 | 1483 |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | Real Betis Balompié | 1 | 120 | 0 | 2 | 1731 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Betis Balompié | 2 | 107 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evanilson Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Franco Cervi Liga Portugal · 2018 | 24 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Barış Alper Yılmaz Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Malcom Premier Liga · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Pizzi Liga Portugal · 2016 | 27 | €11.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Vincent Aboubakar Liga Portugal · 2016 | 24 | €10.5M | €18.0M | rose |
| Bernard Premier Liga · 2018 | 26 | €16.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Francisco Trincão Liga Portugal · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2025 | Botafogo | Zenit S-Pb | €33.0M | €22.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Real Betis | Botafogo | €16.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Fluminense | Real Betis | €10.4M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Fluminense U20 | Fluminense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.