Charly Nouck
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Charly Nouck's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-3.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.53x the positional average in the league (1020 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €1.1M vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 36% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1020 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.79
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.62
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1286
- Opponent strength
- 1261
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 36%
- Resale range (24m)
- €795k – €3.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +24% (IQR -21% to +138%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1020 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 20 | 1020 | 52% | 5 | 4 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 1261 | 1286 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Viborg FF | Superliga | LW | 17 | 431 | 22% | 2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.53 | 1306 | 1222 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 18 | 933 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.30 | 1297 | 1220 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Odense Boldklub | Superliga | RW | 11 | 344 | 17% | 1 | 2 | 0.78 | 0.62 | 1304 | 1240 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 4 | 244 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | Viborg FF | 5 | 291 | 2 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 2 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | Odense Boldklub | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oussama Tannane Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €700k | €3.0M | rose |
| Bruce Anderson Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 24 | €600k | €550k | flat |
| Emmanuel Boateng Liga Portugal · 2017 | 21 | €1.5M | €2.5M | rose |
| Murilo Liga Portugal · 2018 | 22 | €850k | €650k | fell |
| Georgiy Melkadze Premier Liga · 2020 | 23 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Oussama Idrissi Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Panagiotis Vlachodimos Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €750k | €600k | fell |
| Steven Berghuis Eredivisie · 2014 | 23 | €1.0M | €4.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Jul 2024 | Odense BK | Viborg FF | €536k | €600k |
| 7 Jul 2022 | Odense BK U19 | Odense BK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Naesby BK U19 | Odense BK U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Naesby BK Youth | Naesby BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.