Renato Veiga
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Renato Veiga's performance-implied value at EUR 9.5M-26.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.5M-33.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.1M-35.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.5M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2478 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1544
- Opponent strength
- 1496
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €15.1M – €35.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 35 pts; changed club; team strength down (-94 Elo); relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +62% (IQR +11% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 32 | 2478 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1496 | 1544 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | CB | 13 | 1094 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1475 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 7 | 176 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1577 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | DM | 13 | 638 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1488 | 1378 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 8 | 720 | 1 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1462 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Julio Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €14.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Yeray Álvarez Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Alexsandro Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| John Stones Premier League · 2016 | 22 | €28.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Mathías Olivera Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €12.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Matija Nastasić Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €14.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Nico Elvedi Bundesliga · 2017 | 21 | €7.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | Villarreal | €24.5M | €25.0M |
| 10 Jun 2025 | Juventus | Chelsea | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 27 Jan 2025 | Chelsea | Juventus | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 12 Jul 2024 | Basel | Chelsea | €14.0M | €3.0M |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Sporting B | Basel | €4.6M | €1.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Augsburg | Sporting B | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Sporting B | Augsburg | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U17 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real SC U17 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Real SC U155 | Real SC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Lakhlej Foot | Real SC U155 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Sporting Yth. | Lakhlej Foot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.