Conrad Harder
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Conrad Harder's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-20.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.0M-25.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.3M-30.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (977 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.8M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 25% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 977 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1573
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 25%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.3M – €30.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+80 Elo); league level up (+183 Elo); role change LW -> ST.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -7% (IQR -17% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 977 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | ST | 29 | 919 | 30% | 3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0.42 | 1487 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 4 | 58 | 2% | 1 | 0 | 1.55 | 0.35 | 1349 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LW | 28 | 769 | 25% | 5 | 5 | 1.17 | 0.44 | 1310 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | ST | 7 | 588 | 30% | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 1317 | 1341 | 0.38 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | ST | 16 | 407 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 1201 | 1444 | 0.48 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 129 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 9 | 323 | 1 | 0 | 1607 |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 5 | 270 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2020 | 21 | €20.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Ilias Akhomach Laliga · 2024 | 20 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Martin Terrier Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Adam Hlozek Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €18.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Mattia Destro Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €11.5M | €13.0M | flat |
| Keita Baldé Serie A · 2015 | 20 | €8.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Lucas Ocampos Ligue 1 · 2015 | 21 | €6.5M | €5.5M | flat |
| Sofiane Diop Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Sporting | Leipzig | €24.0M | €24.0M |
| 2 Sept 2024 | Nordsjaelland | Sporting | €19.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | KB Youth | FCN Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | BSV | KB Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.