Pablo Pagis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Pagis's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-10.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.6M-17.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.6M-26.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.79x the positional average in the league (1772 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 91
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €8.8M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1772 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.76
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1464
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.6M – €26.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -24% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1772 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | AM | 28 | 1772 | 58% | 10 | 5 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 1464 | 1420 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | AM | 3 | 167 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 1497 | 1335 | 0.87 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rolando Mandragora Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Hamed Traoré Serie A · 2022 | 22 | €22.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Nedim Bajrami Serie A · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Jakub Jankto Serie A · 2017 | 21 | €8.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Marco Benassi Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €9.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Muhammed Cham Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €6.0M | €5.5M | flat |
| Lazar Samardžić Serie A · 2024 | 22 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Sandi Lovrić Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2024 | Stade Lavallois | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jan 2024 | FC Lorient | Stade Lavallois | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Nîmes Olympique | FC Lorient | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | FC Lorient | Nîmes Olympique | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lorient B | FC Lorient | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Lorient U19 | Lorient B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.