Niccolò Pisilli
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niccolò Pisilli's performance-implied value at EUR 12.9M-33.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.4M-41.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.8M-51.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1285 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €31.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1285 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.8M – €51.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +133% (IQR +30% to +200%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1285 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 25 | 1285 | 38% | 2 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 1483 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 28 | 1218 | 36% | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1520 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1522 | 1618 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1696 | 1578 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 529 | 2 | 0 | 1497 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 563 | 1 | 0 | 1528 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 152 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1433 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Fagioli Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Giovanni Fabbian Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €14.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Bundesliga · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Fermín López Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €30.0M | €100M | rose |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2017 | 24 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Oihan Sancet Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Adam Wharton Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Roma U20 | Roma | Unknown | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Roma U18 | Roma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Roma U17 | Roma U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | AS Rom Youth | Roma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.