Gustavo Mantuan
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustavo Mantuan's performance-implied value at EUR 3.6M-12.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-6.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.2M-8.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 72.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €4.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.56 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1933 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 73 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.56 (rank 10)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1597
- Opponent strength
- 1312
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.2M – €8.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -26% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 48%–200%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RB | 24 | 1933 | 72% | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 1312 | 1597 | 0.56 |
| 2024/25 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RB | 27 | 1644 | 61% | 3 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.23 | 1282 | 1558 | 0.55 |
| 2023/24 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | RW | 26 | 1238 | 46% | 3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 1318 | 1491 | 0.49 |
| 2022/23 | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | Premier Liga | LW | 22 | 553 | 20% | 6 | 4 | 1.63 | 0.45 | 1279 | 1582 | 0.53 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 243 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 548 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1405 |
| 2023/24 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 10 | 610 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Russian Super Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1447 |
| 2022/23 | Russian Cup | AO FK Zenit Sankt-Peterburg | 7 | 368 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domagoj Vida Premier Liga · 2015 | 26 | €7.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Jere Uronen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Joël Veltman Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Ivan Strinic Premier Liga · 2014 | 27 | €6.0M | €4.5M | fell |
| Víctor Gómez Liga Portugal · 2023 | 23 | €5.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Timothy Derijck Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €600k | fell |
| Yaroslav Rakitskyi Premier Liga · 2016 | 27 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Vyacheslav Karavaev Premier Liga · 2021 | 26 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Corinthians | Zenit S-Pb | €2.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Zenit S-Pb | Corinthians | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Corinthians | Zenit S-Pb | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Corinthians U20 | Corinthians | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.