Dzenan Pejcinovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dzenan Pejcinovic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-14.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.8M-26.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.0M-29.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.10x the positional average in the league (1456 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1456 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.56
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1372
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.0M – €29.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +26% (IQR -8% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1456 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1456 | 48% | 8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 1498 | 1372 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 4 | 33 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1457 | 1427 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1352 | 1525 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 135 | 3 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberto Moleiro Laliga · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Tiago Tomás Bundesliga · 2023 | 21 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Colombo Serie A · 2023 | 21 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Manolo Gabbiadini Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €7.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Ishak Belfodil Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Junior Hoilett Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ângelo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 20 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2013 | 22 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2025 | F. Düsseldorf | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 19 Jul 2024 | Wolfsburg | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | FC Augsburg U19 | Wolfsburg | €1.3M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Augsburg U17 | FC Augsburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Augsburg Yth. | FC Augsburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | B. München Yth. | Augsburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.