Check Keita
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Check Keita's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-5.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 78
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 40th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2541 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 40 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1307
- Opponent strength
- 1381
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €5.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 50 pts; relative output up 148% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +34% (IQR -21% to +144%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 30 | 2541 | 94% | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1381 | 1307 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 16 | 1189 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1385 | 1315 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | Stade Reims | Ligue 1 | CB | 9 | 687 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1437 | 1425 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1372 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Charleroi Sporting Club | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1342 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Miazga Eredivisie · 2018 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Boris Popović Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Pedro Malheiro Liga Portugal · 2023 | 22 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Wout Faes Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Marcão Liga Portugal · 2019 | 23 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Samuel Gigot Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €3.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Jemal Tabidze Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Stelios Andreou Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2024 | Stade Reims | R Charleroi SC | €500k | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | SC Bastia | Stade Reims | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Stade Reims | SC Bastia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Mar 2023 | Stade Reims B | Stade Reims | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Stade Reims U19 | Stade Reims B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.