Zakaria El Ouahdi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Zakaria El Ouahdi's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-11.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 12.4M-22.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.1M-21.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €17.0M vs market €17.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2105 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1370
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.1M – €21.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-64 Elo); relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -10% (IQR -35% to +26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 24 | 2105 | 78% | 7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 1370 | 1471 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 27 | 2317 | 86% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1373 | 1535 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | RB | 13 | 1066 | 39% | 0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.10 | 1371 | 1459 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RWD Molenbeek | Jupiler Pro League | RM | 5 | 429 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 1398 | 1214 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KRC Genk | 10 | 891 | 1 | 3 | 1341 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 9 | 828 | 4 | 1 | 1435 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1432 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Maxim De Cuyper Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €9.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Joakim Maehle Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 24 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Denzel Dumfries Eredivisie · 2021 | 25 | €16.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Zeki Çelik Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Aderllan Santos Liga Portugal · 2015 | 26 | €7.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Christian Luyindama Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 25 | €7.5M | €5.5M | fell |
| Caio Henrique Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sept 2023 | RWDM | Genk | €2.5M | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Rupel Boom | RWDM | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.