Marko Milovanović
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marko Milovanović's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-6.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (1535 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €2.8M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1535 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.71
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1277
- Opponent strength
- 1338
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €6.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -51% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1535 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Alverca | Liga Portugal | ST | 31 | 1535 | 50% | 9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0.71 | 1338 | 1277 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | UD Almería | Laliga | ST | 11 | 302 | 9% | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.78 | 1514 | 1327 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | UD Almería | Laliga | ST | 2 | 14 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1381 | 1371 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | UD Almería | 1 | 66 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Armenteros Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
| Griffin Yow Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Beykan Simsek Super Lig · 2016 | 21 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Tyler Boyd Super Lig · 2019 | 25 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Halil Dervişoğlu Eredivisie · 2020 | 21 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Lazaros Lamprou Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €2.0M | €900k | fell |
| Aron Jóhannsson Superliga · 2013 | 23 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Abdoulay Diaby Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 24 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Alverca | UD Almería | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 15 Jul 2025 | UD Almería | Alverca | Free / loan | €600k |
| 11 Jul 2022 | Partizan | UD Almería | €3.5M | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Partizan U19 | Partizan | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Partizan U17 | Partizan U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Partizan U15 | Partizan U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.