Kenan Yıldız
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kenan Yıldız's performance-implied value at EUR 24.8M-62.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 59.9M-102.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 45.3M-127.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (2844 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €79.2M vs market €75.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2844 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.39
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €45.3M – €127M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -49% to +41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LW | 36 | 2844 | 83% | 10 | 7 | 0.54 | 0.39 | 1493 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LW | 35 | 2409 | 70% | 7 | 5 | 0.45 | 0.32 | 1468 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | SS | 27 | 945 | 28% | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.35 | 1465 | 1621 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 10 | 768 | 1 | 3 | 1594 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 3 | 219 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 10 | 669 | 1 | 1 | 1646 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 102 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Juventus FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 5 | 141 | 2 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Timo Werner Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €60.0M | €64.0M | flat |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €80.0M | €140M | rose |
| Julian Brandt Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Moussa Diaby Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €38.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €27.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2016 | 21 | €32.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Moussa Dembélé Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Loïs Openda Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €60.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2023 | Juve Next Gen | Juventus | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 13 Mar 2023 | Juventus U19 | Juve Next Gen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Jul 2022 | FC Bayern U19 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | FC Bayern U17 | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Regensburg Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | SV Sallern Jgd. | Regensburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.