Khvicha Kvaratskhelia

25 yrs · Left winger · Georgia
Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1 · Foot: both · Height: 183 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€140M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€111M – €186M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€38.8M – €77.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€67.8M – €123M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€148M – -€33.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€111M – €186M
Model value (performance-implied)€38.8M – €77.0M
Projected value (24 months)€67.8M – €123M
Dashed line: current market value (€140M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Khvicha Kvaratskhelia's performance-implied value at EUR 38.8M-77.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 110.9M-186.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 67.8M-123.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (1482 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 4

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite97.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €151M vs market €140M
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €140M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1482 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.73
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.30
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1818
Opponent strength
1459
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€67.8M – €123M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+91 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -58% to -14%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1482 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1LW28148248%840.730.30145918170.88
2024/25SSC NapoliSerie ALW17118735%530.610.46150616600.99
2024/25Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1LW1492030%430.680.24143518120.88
2023/24SSC NapoliSerie ALW34275380%1180.620.43148415690.98
2022/23SSC NapoliSerie ALW34253974%12130.890.42146217390.94
2020/21FC Rubin KazanPremier LigaLW23175165%480.620.57134313830.55
2019/20FC Rubin KazanPremier LigaLW27146854%350.490.51139113320.63
2018/19Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" МоскваPremier LigaLW72409%100.380.34140414990.69

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain1510571061692
2025/26Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain172001580
2025/26Uefa Super CupParis Saint-Germain160001564
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain9736321745
2024/25Italy CupSSC Napoli210400—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli8672011627
2023/24Supercoppa ItalianaSSC Napoli2142001693
2023/24Italy CupSSC Napoli12700—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueSSC Napoli9700241682
2019/20Russian CupFC Rubin Kazan15000—
2018/19Russian CupФутбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва33500—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Mauro Icardi
Ligue 1 · 2020
27€60.0M€22.0Mfell
Paulo Dybala
Serie A · 2017
24€65.0M€85.0Mrose
Serge Gnabry
Bundesliga · 2019
24€60.0M€70.0Mflat
Marco Asensio
Laliga · 2022
26€40.0M€20.0Mfell
Douglas Costa
Serie A · 2018
28€55.0M€24.0Mfell
Kingsley Coman
Bundesliga · 2023
27€65.0M€30.0Mfell
Vinicius Junior
Laliga · 2024
24€180M€140Mfell
Gabriel Jesus
Premier League · 2024
27€65.0M€17.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
17 Jan 2025NapoliPSG€80.0M€85.0M
1 Jul 2022Dinamo BatumiNapoli€13.3M€15.0M
31 Mar 2022Rubin KazanDinamo Batumi€7.0M€16.0M
6 Jul 2019RustaviRubin Kazan€600k€900k
30 Jun 2019Loko MoscowRustaviFree / loan€900k
12 Feb 2019RustaviLoko MoscowFree / loan€350k
20 Mar 2018Dinamo TbilisiRustavi€180k€125k
20 Sept 2017Dinamo AcademyDinamo TbilisiUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.