Adam Nygaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Adam Nygaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 38
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €620k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1006 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 0 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1183
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €326k – €1.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -10% to +200%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1006 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Fredericia | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1006 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1268 | 1183 | 0.47 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Fredericia | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 45 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederic Ananou Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Roman Didyk Premier Liga · 2022 | 20 | €300k | €800k | rose |
| Josh Reid Scottish Premiership · 2021 | 19 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Enzo Cornelisse Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €375k | €375k | flat |
| Oleksandr Safronov Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €450k | €500k | flat |
| Jay Idzes Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €500k | €2.5M | rose |
| Julius Dirksen Eredivisie · 2023 | 20 | €450k | €400k | flat |
| Nathan Gassama Premier Liga · 2024 | 23 | €350k | €1.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Midtjylland U19 | FC Fredericia | Unknown | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | FC Fredericia | Midtjylland U19 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 31 Aug 2024 | Midtjylland U19 | FC Fredericia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.