Pedro Henrique
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Henrique's performance-implied value at EUR 2.0M-7.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-12.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.5M-11.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 19
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1881 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1155
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.5M – €11.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 262% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -57% (IQR -68% to -44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LB | 23 | 1881 | 70% | 0 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.14 | 1155 | 1420 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LB | 22 | 1706 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1205 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LB | 9 | 504 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1277 | 1497 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 190 | 0 | 0 | 1315 |
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 6 | 447 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attila Szalai Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Greg Taylor Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 27 | €7.5M | €4.0M | fell |
| Harold Moukoudi Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Irakli Azarovi Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Pape Abou Cissé Super League 1 · 2022 | 27 | €8.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Giannis Michailidis Super League 1 · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Oleksandr Syrota Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Marcelo Saracchi Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €5.5M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2023 | Without Club | Shakhtar D. | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 12 May 2023 | Athletico-PR | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 10 Sept 2021 | EC Vitória | Athletico-PR | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Vitória U20 | EC Vitória | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.