Başar Önal
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Başar Önal's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.9M-12.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.0M-16.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (2070 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 35.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.6M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2070 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1362
- Opponent strength
- 1293
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.0M – €16.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 23 pts; relative output up 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -10% to +24%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LM | 29 | 2070 | 68% | 7 | 8 | 0.65 | 0.23 | 1293 | 1362 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie | LM | 33 | 1375 | 45% | 1 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 1295 | 1320 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 338 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 152 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Can Bozdogan Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €4.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ruslan Litvinov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Markus Henriksen Eredivisie · 2015 | 23 | €2.8M | €5.0M | rose |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €10.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Sem Steijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €10.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Danil Prutsev Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €3.5M | €4.0M | flat |
| Valeri Qazaishvili Eredivisie · 2015 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2024 | De Graafschap | NEC Nijmegen | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Mar 2022 | Graafschap U18 | De Graafschap | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Graafschap U17 | Graafschap U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Graafschap Yth. | Graafschap U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | DZC '68 Yth. | Graafschap Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.