Lucas Bergvall
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Bergvall's performance-implied value at EUR 14.2M-35.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.5M-49.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.9M-52.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (967 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 52
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €37.8M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 967 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.37
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1551
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.9M – €52.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 122% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +31% (IQR +10% to +133%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 967 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 23 | 967 | 28% | 1 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.27 | 1551 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 27 | 1205 | 35% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 1556 | 1564 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 378 | 0 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Sweden | 3 | 112 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1830 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 12 | 792 | 0 | 3 | 1515 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wharton Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Alex Scott Premier League · 2024 | 21 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Tariq Lamptey Premier League · 2021 | 21 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| James Garner Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €14.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Danilo Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €28.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Julio Enciso Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain Premier League · 2013 | 20 | €15.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Oihan Sancet Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Djurgården | Tottenham | €20.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Brommapojkarna | Djurgården | €900k | €800k |
| 15 Jul 2022 | IF Bromma U19 | Brommapojkarna | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | IF Bromma U17 | IF Bromma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Bromma Jgd. | IF Bromma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.