Alex Scott
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alex Scott's performance-implied value at EUR 29.2M-54.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 38.6M-72.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 31.5M-66.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.72x the positional average in the league (2860 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €56.9M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2860 (84% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1620
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €31.5M – €66.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 62 pts; team strength up (+60 Elo); relative output up 33% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +22% (IQR -13% to +30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CM | 37 | 2860 | 84% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1620 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CM | 20 | 751 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1565 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CM | 23 | 1010 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1562 | 1496 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 112 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 2 | 101 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 293 | 1 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €45.0M | €110M | rose |
| André Gomes Laliga · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Dani Olmo Bundesliga · 2021 | 23 | €45.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2019 | 20 | €45.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Tanguy Ndombélé Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €50.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Sean Longstaff Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Leander Dendoncker Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €22.5M | €28.0M | rose |
| Moisés Caicedo Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €75.0M | €90.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2023 | Bristol City | Bournemouth | €23.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bristol U18 | Bristol City | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Guernsey | Bristol U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.