Julio Enciso
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Julio Enciso's performance-implied value at EUR 11.5M-37.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.2M-32.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.0M-38.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.94x the positional average in the league (1893 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.0M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1893 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.43
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.38
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.0M – €38.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; changed club; team strength up (+108 Elo); league level down (-126 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -14% (IQR -51% to +28%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | AM | 27 | 1893 | 62% | 3 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.38 | 1479 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Ipswich Town | Premier League | AM | 13 | 877 | 26% | 2 | 3 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 1551 | 1322 | 1.23 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | AM | 12 | 288 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 1546 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | AM | 12 | 472 | 14% | 0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 1608 | 1520 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | SS | 20 | 800 | 23% | 4 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 1584 | 1619 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Paraguay | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 63 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann M'Vila Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Nuno Tavares Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Hamed Traoré Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €20.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Maxime Lopez Ligue 1 · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Julian Draxler Bundesliga · 2016 | 23 | €24.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Weston McKennie Bundesliga · 2019 | 21 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Junior Dina Ebimbe Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €14.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Brighton | R. Strasbourg | €9.5M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Ipswich | Brighton | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 23 Jan 2025 | Brighton | Ipswich | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Libertad | Brighton | €11.6M | €11.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Libertad U19 | Libertad | Unknown | €500k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.