Joel Ordóñez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Joel Ordóñez's performance-implied value at EUR 4.4M-24.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 25.7M-44.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.1M-46.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €35.2M vs market €33.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1822 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1367
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.1M – €46.9M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 52% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -13% to +44%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 76 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–160%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1822 | 67% | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 1367 | 1589 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 23 | 1733 | 64% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1396 | 1552 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 9 | 473 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1400 | 1541 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 871 | 1 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | Club Brugge KV | 10 | 846 | 0 | 0 | 1431 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ecuador | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 12 | 1048 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1404 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rúben Dias Liga Portugal · 2018 | 21 | €22.0M | €30.5M | rose |
| Eliaquim Mangala Liga Portugal · 2014 | 23 | €23.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Calvin Bassey Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Quilindschy Hartman Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €23.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Wilfried Singo Ligue 1 · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €23.0M | flat |
| Alessio Romagnoli Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €40.0M | €36.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Club NXT | Club Brugge | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 2 Aug 2022 | Independiente | Club NXT | €3.9M | €600k |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Independiente B | Independiente | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2021 | IDV U20 | Independiente B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.