Kevin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kevin's performance-implied value at EUR 11.5M-28.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.5M-36.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.0M-32.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1038 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 83.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €27.8M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1038 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1572
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.0M – €32.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 34 pts; changed club; team strength up (+162 Elo); league level up (+423 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +25% (IQR +0% to +72%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1038 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | LW | 26 | 1038 | 30% | 1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0.36 | 1572 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LW | 24 | 1742 | 65% | 6 | 4 | 0.52 | 0.32 | 1191 | 1414 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | Premier Liga | LW | 14 | 875 | 32% | 3 | 4 | 0.72 | 0.34 | 1252 | 1497 | 0.34 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 236 | 4 | 2 | 1323 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 180 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 165 | 1 | 0 | 1316 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 7 | 460 | 2 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 445 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 159 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Bergwijn Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Anthony Gordon Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €35.0M | €65.0M | rose |
| Munir El Haddadi Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Gerard Deulofeu Laliga · 2018 | 24 | €14.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Leon Bailey Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €42.0M | rose |
| Sandro Ramírez Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €10.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Heung-min Son Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €25.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Gianluca Scamacca Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €24.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Shakhtar D. | Fulham | €40.0M | €12.0M |
| 19 Jan 2024 | Palmeiras | Shakhtar D. | €14.8M | €4.0M |
| 12 Jul 2023 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Desportivo U20 | Palmeiras U20 | €125k | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Palmeiras U20 | Desportivo U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Desportivo U20 | Palmeiras U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.