Paul Wanner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paul Wanner's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-19.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.1M-31.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.6M-41.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1641 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €22.6M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 17% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1641 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1606
- Opponent strength
- 1274
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 17%
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.6M – €41.6M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+253 Elo); league level down (-205 Elo); role change AM -> CM; relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR +0% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1641 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | CM | 22 | 1641 | 54% | 3 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 1274 | 1606 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | AM | 29 | 1779 | 58% | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 1488 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | RW | 2 | 23 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1432 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | AM | 4 | 35 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1454 | 1847 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 336 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 280 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 3 | 144 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 79 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1384 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 2 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Antônio Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Fred Premier Liga · 2016 | 23 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Arthur Vermeeren Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 18 | €17.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Viktor Kovalenko Premier Liga · 2017 | 21 | €6.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Renato Sanches Liga Portugal · 2016 | 19 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Nico González Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Mady Camara Super League 1 · 2020 | 23 | €6.5M | €11.0M | rose |
| Giannis Konstantelias Super League 1 · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2025 | Bayern Munich | PSV | €15.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Heidenheim | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bayern Munich | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | SV Elversberg | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Bayern Munich | SV Elversberg | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | FC Bayern U19 | Bayern Munich | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | B. München Yth. | FC Bayern U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ravensburg Yth. | B. München Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.