
Arthur Vermeeren
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Arthur Vermeeren's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-14.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.1M-29.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.8M-29.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (823 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 63.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.4M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 823 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1439
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.8M – €29.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -46% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 823 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 20 | 823 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1439 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 28 | 1576 | 52% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 1495 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | CM | 21 | 1873 | 69% | 1 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1378 | 1492 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 5 | 160 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1470 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | DM | 20 | 1629 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1314 | 1497 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 5 | 330 | 0 | 1 | 1595 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 340 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 337 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Royal Antwerp FC | 6 | 540 | 1 | 2 | 1649 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1435 |
| 2023/24 | Volkswagen Supercup | Royal Antwerp FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1302 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Royal Antwerp FC | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1294 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Baldanzi Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €8.5M | fell |
| Nicolò Rovella Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €23.0M | rose |
| Nadiem Amiri Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Aster Vranckx Bundesliga · 2022 | 20 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Yann M'Vila Ligue 1 · 2013 | 23 | €15.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Federico Chiesa Serie A · 2017 | 20 | €10.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Yunus Musah Laliga · 2022 | 20 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Amadou Diawara Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Marseille | Leipzig | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Leipzig | Marseille | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Atlético | Leipzig | €20.0M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Leipzig | Atlético | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Atlético | Leipzig | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | Royal Antwerp | Atlético | €20.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Young Reds | Royal Antwerp | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Antwerp U18 | Antwerp U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Antwerp Yth. | Antwerp U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | KV Mechelen Yth | Antwerp Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Lierse SK Yth. | KV Mechelen Yth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.