Arthur Vermeeren

21 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also CM) · Belgium
Olympique Marseille · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 180 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: HighContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€20.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€15.1M – €29.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€5.1M – €14.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€9.8M – €29.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€24.6M – -€279k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€15.1M – €29.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€5.1M – €14.8M
Projected value (24 months)€9.8M – €29.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€20.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Arthur Vermeeren's performance-implied value at EUR 5.1M-14.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.1M-29.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.8M-29.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.81x the positional average in the league (823 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average63.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable21.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €21.4M vs market €20.0M
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentHighbreakout probability 8%
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
823 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.11
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.10
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
64 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1504
Opponent strength
1439
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
High
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
8%
Resale range (24m)
€9.8M – €29.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -46% to +32%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 823 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Olympique MarseilleLigue 1DM2082327%010.110.10143915040.88
2024/25RB LeipzigBundesligaDM28157652%020.110.10149515330.94
2023/24Royal Antwerp FCJupiler Pro LeagueCM21187369%130.190.15137814920.63
2023/24Atlético de MadridLaligaDM51605%000.000.07147016671.00
2022/23Royal Antwerp FCJupiler Pro LeagueDM20162953%010.060.07131414970.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueOlympique Marseille5330011595
2024/25Dfb PokalRB Leipzig434000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueRB Leipzig7337001634
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueRoyal Antwerp FC6540121649
2023/24Uefa Champions League QualifyingRoyal Antwerp FC2180011435
2023/24Volkswagen SupercupRoyal Antwerp FC190001302
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingRoyal Antwerp FC239001294

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Tommaso Baldanzi
Serie A · 2024
21€15.0M€8.5Mfell
Nicolò Rovella
Serie A · 2024
23€18.0M€23.0Mrose
Nadiem Amiri
Bundesliga · 2019
23€17.0M€18.0Mflat
Aster Vranckx
Bundesliga · 2022
20€10.0M€12.0Mrose
Yann M'Vila
Ligue 1 · 2013
23€15.0M€7.0Mfell
Federico Chiesa
Serie A · 2017
20€10.0M€60.0Mrose
Yunus Musah
Laliga · 2022
20€15.0M€22.0Mrose
Amadou Diawara
Serie A · 2021
24€14.0M€2.2Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026MarseilleLeipzigFree / loan€20.0M
31 Aug 2025LeipzigMarseilleFree / loan€22.0M
1 Jul 2025AtléticoLeipzig€20.0M€22.0M
30 Jun 2025LeipzigAtléticoFree / loan€22.0M
26 Aug 2024AtléticoLeipzigFree / loan€25.0M
26 Jan 2024Royal AntwerpAtlético€20.0M€30.0M
1 Jul 2022Young RedsRoyal AntwerpUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2022Antwerp U18Antwerp U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2021Antwerp Yth.Antwerp U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018KV Mechelen YthAntwerp Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Lierse SK Yth.KV Mechelen YthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.