Tristan Degreef
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tristan Degreef's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-3.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-6.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.06x the positional average in the league (1070 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 64
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.1M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1070 (40% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 29 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1367
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €6.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +40% (IQR -12% to +167%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1070 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 24 | 1070 | 40% | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 1367 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | RW | 10 | 376 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1320 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1601 | 1516 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 10 | 813 | 1 | 1 | 1470 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1295 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 163 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 7 | 480 | 1 | 0 | 1520 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1385 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2020 | 22 | €1.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Albert Gudmundsson Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Moussa Sylla Eredivisie · 2022 | 23 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Dodi Lukébakio Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 21 | €3.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Aaron Leya Iseka Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 21 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| Jovane Cabral Liga Portugal · 2020 | 22 | €4.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Soltmurad Bakaev Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €1.2M | €500k | fell |
| Diego Rolán Ligue 1 · 2014 | 21 | €2.0M | €8.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2024 | RSCA Futures | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Anderlecht U18 | RSCA Futures | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Anderlecht Yth. | Anderlecht U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | OH Leuven Yth. | Anderlecht Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.