Gabri Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabri Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.2M-10.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-12.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.28x the positional average in the league (1321 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 58.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €7.6M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1321 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.41
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 59 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1533
- Opponent strength
- 1293
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €12.8M
Trajectory drivers: role change LW -> LM; relative output up 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -35% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1321 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LM | 28 | 1321 | 43% | 1 | 5 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 1293 | 1533 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | LW | 30 | 1536 | 50% | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.34 | 1374 | 1478 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 11 | 647 | 3 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 3 | 135 | 2 | 1 | 1282 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 413 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 5 | 208 | 0 | 2 | 1475 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukman Haruna Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Luciano Narsingh Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €7.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Dorukhan Toköz Super Lig · 2019 | 23 | €5.5M | €4.7M | flat |
| Siebe Schrijvers Jupiler Pro League · 2020 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Denys Garmash Premier Liga · 2014 | 24 | €6.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Andreas Skov Olsen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €14.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Marco van Ginkel Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €7.5M | €10.0M | rose |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 24 | €4.0M | €12.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Girona | Braga | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | CD Mirandés | Girona | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Girona | CD Mirandés | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | San Fernando CD | Girona | Free / loan | €300k |
| 14 Jul 2022 | Girona | San Fernando CD | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Girona FC B | Girona | Unknown | €100k |
| 9 Jul 2021 | Girona U19 | Girona FC B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Girona FC U18 | Girona U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Girona FC Youth | Girona FC U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.