Archie Gray
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Archie Gray's performance-implied value at EUR 20.4M-43.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 26.0M-51.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.1M-53.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.31x the positional average in the league (1480 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 87.1th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €39.0M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1480 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 87 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1610
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.1M – €53.7M
Trajectory drivers: role change CB -> DM; relative output up 299% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR -14% to +88%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1480 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | DM | 24 | 1480 | 43% | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1610 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CB | 28 | 1744 | 51% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1562 | 1564 | 1.23 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 584 | 0 | 1 | 1634 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1830 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 11 | 840 | 0 | 0 | 1506 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wharton Premier League · 2024 | 20 | €30.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Max Meyer Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €15.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Emile Smith Rowe Premier League · 2022 | 22 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Rayan Aït-Nouri Premier League · 2022 | 21 | €20.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Fran Beltrán Laliga · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Dominik Szoboszlai Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €28.0M | €75.0M | rose |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| James Ward-Prowse Premier League · 2016 | 22 | €11.0M | €18.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | Leeds | Tottenham | €41.3M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Leeds U18 | Leeds | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Leeds Youth | Leeds U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.