Pape Matar Sarr
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pape Matar Sarr's performance-implied value at EUR 19.8M-41.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.5M-40.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 19.2M-37.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.59x the positional average in the league (1389 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.9M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1389 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1564
- Opponent strength
- 1634
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €19.2M – €37.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output up 62% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -78% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1389 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 26 | 1389 | 41% | 2 | 4 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 1634 | 1564 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 36 | 1914 | 56% | 3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.21 | 1576 | 1564 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 34 | 2085 | 61% | 3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.19 | 1569 | 1588 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | CM | 11 | 213 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.23 | 1633 | 1606 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CM | 33 | 2127 | 62% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.24 | 1414 | 1308 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | FC Metz | Ligue 1 | CM | 22 | 1593 | 47% | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.22 | 1432 | 1341 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 9 | 643 | 0 | 0 | 1588 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Super Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1830 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Senegal | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Tottenham Hotspur | 13 | 642 | 2 | 1 | 1532 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Meyer Premier League · 2019 | 24 | €15.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Rubén Pardo Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €10.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| James Ward-Prowse Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €18.0M | €14.5M | flat |
| Emiliano Buendía Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €32.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Dele Alli Premier League · 2020 | 24 | €64.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Fran Beltrán Laliga · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2022 | FC Metz | Tottenham | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 28 Aug 2021 | Tottenham | FC Metz | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 27 Aug 2021 | FC Metz | Tottenham | €16.9M | €10.0M |
| 15 Sept 2020 | Génération Foot | FC Metz | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.