Sem van Duijn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sem van Duijn's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.26x the positional average in the league (1013 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €523k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1013 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.62
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.64
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1216
- Opponent strength
- 1308
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €488k – €2.2M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -41% to +71%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1013 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Telstar | Eredivisie | ST | 14 | 1013 | 33% | 5 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 1308 | 1215 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | SC Telstar | 2 | 171 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fernandes Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Vicente Besuijen Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 22 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Mustafa Eskihellaç Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.4M | rose |
| Admir Bajrovic Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Konrad Michalak Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €550k | €1.7M | rose |
| Oliver Antman Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €700k | €6.0M | rose |
| Gustav Marcussen Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €400k | €250k | fell |
| Ninos Gouriye Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €700k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Telstar | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Free / loan | €800k |
| 26 Jan 2026 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Telstar | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Quick Boys | AZ Alkmaar U21 | €275k | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jul 2021 | Quick Boys U19 | Quick Boys | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Quick Boys Yth. | Quick Boys U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sparta Youth | Quick Boys Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Quick Boys Yth. | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.