Patrick Dorgu
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrick Dorgu's performance-implied value at EUR 21.0M-41.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.3M-49.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.2M-57.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.21x the positional average in the league (1445 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €38.0M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +3% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1445 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.49
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 88 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1627
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.2M – €57.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; changed club; team strength up (+285 Elo); league level up (+84 Elo); role change RW -> LW; relative output up 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +16% (IQR -21% to +78%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1445 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | LW | 26 | 1445 | 42% | 4 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 1627 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | US Lecce | Serie A | RW | 21 | 1842 | 54% | 3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.41 | 1507 | 1351 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | LM | 12 | 843 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1596 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | US Lecce | Serie A | LB | 32 | 1563 | 46% | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 1509 | 1359 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 7 | 634 | 0 | 1 | 1591 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Lecce | 2 | 76 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Guedes Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Matheus Cunha Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €70.0M | €120M | rose |
| Victor Boniface Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €40.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| André Schürrle Premier League · 2014 | 24 | €20.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Philippe Coutinho Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €32.0M | €100M | rose |
| Leon Bailey Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €29.5M | €25.0M | flat |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2017 | 22 | €30.0M | €60.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2025 | Lecce | Man Utd | €30.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Lecce | €220k | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Lecce U19 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Free / loan | €400k |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Lecce U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.