Lucas Høgsberg
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Høgsberg's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-16.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.5M-28.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.0M-32.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 63th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €24.2M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 19% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2068 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1478
- Opponent strength
- 1449
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 19%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.0M – €32.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+137 Elo); league level up (+186 Elo); relative output down 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -4% to +72%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 1798 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1449 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 3 | 270 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1194 | 1314 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CB | 18 | 1251 | 63% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1290 | 1341 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1333 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquinhos Serie A · 2013 | 19 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Samuel Umtiti Ligue 1 · 2014 | 21 | €8.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Benoît Badiashile Ligue 1 · 2020 | 19 | €18.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Joe Scally Bundesliga · 2023 | 20 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Mohamed Simakan Ligue 1 · 2020 | 20 | €7.2M | €22.0M | rose |
| Juan Jesus Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €12.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Loïc Badé Ligue 1 · 2021 | 21 | €12.0M | €12.0M | flat |
| Armel Bella-Kotchap Bundesliga · 2022 | 21 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2025 | Nordsjaelland | R. Strasbourg | €15.0M | €3.5M |
| 28 Apr 2023 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FCN Youth | Nordsjaell. U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.