Marvin Young
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marvin Young's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.4M-12.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 72
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €5.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2970 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1213
- Opponent strength
- 1309
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.4M – €12.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts; team strength down (-87 Elo); relative output up 65% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +39% (IQR +13% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1309 | 1213 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2175 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1297 | 1300 | 0.50 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Sonne Superliga · 2024 | 24 | €2.0M | €4.0M | rose |
| Josh Doig Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 20 | €3.0M | €6.0M | rose |
| Hidde ter Avest Eredivisie · 2017 | 20 | €1.8M | €2.0M | flat |
| Victor Nelsson Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €12.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Neraysho Kasanwirjo Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Rodrigo Guth Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €2.0M | €2.8M | rose |
| Aleksandr Silyanov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €5.5M | €6.0M | flat |
| Eren Elmalı Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €3.6M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2024 | Sparta U21 | Sparta R. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Sparta R. U18 | Sparta U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sparta Youth | Sparta R. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.