David Watson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Watson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (2309 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 81
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 11.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.6M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 7% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2309 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 12 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1232
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 7%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; team strength down (-67 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +33% (IQR -20% to +125%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 10 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–107%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 80%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 2309 | 78% | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.26 | 1232 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 30 | 1684 | 57% | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 1250 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 31 | 2087 | 70% | 5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.28 | 1239 | 1243 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CM | 6 | 455 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 1355 | 1144 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1394 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 203 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyall Cameron Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €600k | €1.2M | rose |
| Artem Chelyadin Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €250k | fell |
| Yan Dhanda Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Amir Hadziahmetovic Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €2.2M | €7.5M | rose |
| Josh Campbell Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €750k | €1.2M | rose |
| Leighton Clarkson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Endri Cekici Super Lig · 2021 | 25 | €1.0M | €3.2M | rose |
| Malachi Boateng Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 22 | €450k | €500k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Kilmarnock FC | Bolton | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Kilmarnock U18 | Kilmarnock FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.