Martim Fernandes
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martim Fernandes's performance-implied value at EUR 2.5M-10.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.8M-21.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.8M-25.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +12% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1119 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1352
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.8M – €25.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+86 Elo); relative output down 58% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -8% to +101%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1119 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 20 | 1119 | 37% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1352 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 25 | 1309 | 43% | 0 | 6 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1317 | 1508 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RB | 4 | 259 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.15 | 1459 | 1628 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 9 | 395 | 0 | 1 | 1436 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 5 | 314 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | FC Porto | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Wöber Eredivisie · 2018 | 20 | €8.0M | €9.0M | flat |
| Ferro Liga Portugal · 2019 | 22 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ousmane Diomande Liga Portugal · 2023 | 20 | €10.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Gonçalo Inácio Liga Portugal · 2021 | 20 | €9.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Emanuel Mammana Premier Liga · 2018 | 22 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Kurt Zouma Ligue 1 · 2014 | 20 | €10.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Quilindschy Hartman Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Alex Telles Super Lig · 2014 | 22 | €6.0M | €8.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr 2024 | FC Porto B | Porto | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Porto U19 | FC Porto B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Porto U15 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | UD Valong. For. | FC Porto Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.