Ousmane Diomande
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ousmane Diomande's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-23.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 30.2M-56.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.4M-51.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 18
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €44.2M vs market €42.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1297 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1318
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.4M – €51.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 40 pts; relative output down 26% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -48% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1297 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 17 | 1297 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1318 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 31 | 2527 | 83% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1334 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 26 | 2119 | 69% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 1360 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 13 | 886 | 29% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1363 | 1669 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 9 | 614 | 1 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Ivory Coast | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ivory Coast | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 9 | 752 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 8 | 605 | 1 | 0 | 1541 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 4 | 269 | 0 | 0 | 1707 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacha Boey Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Owen Wijndal Eredivisie · 2023 | 24 | €8.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Benoît Badiashile Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Abdou Diallo Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €28.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Aleksandar Dragovic Premier Liga · 2016 | 25 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Elseid Hysaj Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €23.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Lisandro Martínez Eredivisie · 2021 | 23 | €23.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Semih Kaya Super Lig · 2015 | 24 | €9.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2023 | Midtjylland | Sporting | €14.5M | €400k |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Mafra | Midtjylland | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Midtjylland | Mafra | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jan 2022 | OS Abobo | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.