Gonçalo Inácio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gonçalo Inácio's performance-implied value at EUR 9.5M-35.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.0M-50.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.5M-49.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 31
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 86.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €38.3M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2506 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 86 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1330
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.5M – €49.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -17% (IQR -20% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 29 | 2506 | 82% | 2 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 1330 | 1656 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2253 | 74% | 3 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1324 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 32 | 2484 | 81% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 1376 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 33 | 2366 | 77% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 1397 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 28 | 2475 | 81% | 4 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1354 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CB | 20 | 1357 | 44% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.07 | 1335 | 1617 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 11 | 956 | 1 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 7 | 488 | 1 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2024/25 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 101 | 1 | 0 | 1628 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 9 | 686 | 3 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1627 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 483 | 1 | 0 | 1651 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 7 | 561 | 0 | 1 | 1665 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dávid Hancko Eredivisie · 2023 | 26 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Ricardo Pereira Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €20.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Jordan Teze Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Alejandro Grimaldo Liga Portugal · 2022 | 27 | €20.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Santiago Arias Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €15.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Alex Telles Liga Portugal · 2019 | 27 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Marcos Acuña Liga Portugal · 2019 | 28 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting U19 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Almada Yth. | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.