Mikel Jauregizar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mikel Jauregizar's performance-implied value at EUR 8.1M-25.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.0M-39.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.3M-45.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.45x the positional average in the league (2843 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 49
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.1M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 6% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2843 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 79 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1451
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 6%
- Resale range (24m)
- €17.3M – €45.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; team strength down (-128 Elo); relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -57% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 36 | 2843 | 83% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1479 | 1451 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 34 | 2243 | 66% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1494 | 1578 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Athletic Bilbao | Laliga | CM | 7 | 145 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1420 | 1583 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Athletic Bilbao | 7 | 452 | 0 | 2 | 1690 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 431 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1800 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Athletic Bilbao | 11 | 827 | 1 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 2 | 150 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1750 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Athletic Bilbao | 3 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu Koné Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Fran Beltrán Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Youssouf Fofana Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Khéphren Thuram Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €35.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Santiago Ascacíbar Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €18.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Aimar Oroz Laliga · 2024 | 23 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Niklas Dorsch Bundesliga · 2022 | 24 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Hugo Guillamón Laliga · 2022 | 22 | €20.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bilbao Athletic | Athletic Club | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | CD Basconia | Bilbao Athletic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Bilbao U19 | CD Basconia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Bermeo FT | Bilbao U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.