Afonso Moreira
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Afonso Moreira's performance-implied value at EUR 5.8M-19.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.5M-31.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.6M-45.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.11x the positional average in the league (1719 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €25.6M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 26% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1719 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.63
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1554
- Opponent strength
- 1477
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 26%
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.6M – €45.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +41% (IQR -1% to +81%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1719 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | LW | 27 | 1719 | 56% | 4 | 8 | 0.63 | 0.45 | 1477 | 1554 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1225 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 4 | 38 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 1491 | 1276 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | LM | 1 | 25 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1298 | 1675 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 357 | 2 | 2 | 1410 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cutrone Serie A · 2018 | 20 | €23.0M | €15.5M | fell |
| Felipe Anderson Serie A · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Georginio Rutter Bundesliga · 2022 | 20 | €16.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Rafael Leão Ligue 1 · 2019 | 20 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Jean-Kévin Augustin Bundesliga · 2018 | 21 | €20.0M | €9.5M | fell |
| Bradley Barcola Ligue 1 · 2023 | 21 | €18.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Giacomo Raspadori Serie A · 2021 | 21 | €15.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Hugo Duro Laliga · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €16.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Sporting B | Lyon | €2.0M | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Gil Vicente | Sporting B | Free / loan | €400k |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Sporting B | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Cracks Form. | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.