Robin Mirisola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Mirisola's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-8.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-12.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.5M-14.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.91x the positional average in the league (828 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 39.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €6.3M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 45% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 828 (31% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.65
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.46
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 39 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1471
- Opponent strength
- 1349
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 45%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.5M – €14.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +107% (IQR +34% to +269%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 828 league minutes last season.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 20 | 828 | 31% | 3 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.46 | 1349 | 1471 | 0.65 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | KRC Genk | 9 | 414 | 1 | 0 | 1356 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 7 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1449 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1409 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Kalu Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 20 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Manfred Ugalde Eredivisie · 2023 | 21 | €3.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Viktor Tsygankov Premier Liga · 2017 | 20 | €2.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Jacob Ondrejka Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 22 | €4.0M | €5.5M | rose |
| Dudu Premier Liga · 2013 | 21 | €4.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Jérémie Boga Ligue 1 · 2016 | 19 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Frank Acheampong Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
| Darío Osorio Superliga · 2024 | 20 | €7.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Jong Genk | Genk | Unknown | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | KRC Genk U18 | Jong Genk | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | KRC Genk Youth | KRC Genk U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.